"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you wish to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off as well. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put an equal amount on the second game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books will not allow you to complete the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you wish to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing nhà cái sv288 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you're the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux which means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay for anyone who is winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the truth that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have previously seen, once you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out from the two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. That a BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."