"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the next game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the second game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the next game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. https://789betd.com/ 'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that next time someone lets you know that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a confident expectation in mere two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux so you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your own face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a superb substitute for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the truth that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have previously seen, when you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out of the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."