The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, however they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you would still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting it doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the result of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If link vào bong88 lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great chance for the book. The standard coin-flip odds of winning one parlay from the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the first half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The ball player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, be aware that most off-shore books are much too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. If they do permit you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can give you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and boost your win with hardly any increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an impression privately or the full total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win when you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Because of this, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
For those who have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the full total in the same game, because increasingly more are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you should consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.