The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often result in betting parlays. đá gà sv288 think they are risking less with parlays, however they aren't. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting it doesn't ought to be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to remove the result of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
As with every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each and every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay from the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The ball player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to permit you to parlay first half to game. Should they do let you do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will be taken up to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can give you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another method to boost your potential win on these games, or even to develop a potential win if you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will never be shut out, in that case your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Therefore, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
If you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the medial side to the total in exactly the same game, because progressively more are realizing that these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.