The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the result of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.
As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the overall game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each and every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
Initially, this appeared to be a great chance for the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the first half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to let you parlay first half to game. If they do let you do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with very little increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or even to develop a potential win when you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In Nhà cái 789bet , if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will never be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
For those who have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there exists a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the side to the total in the same game, because a growing number of are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so you might consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.